Bundesliga · Matchday 2 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim vs Dortmund prediction
Best picks
Hoffenheim or Dortmund
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Hoffenheim@ 2.88
Model −2 vs market
X Draw@ 3.75
Model −2 vs market
2 Dortmund@ 2.25
Model +4 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins76%
Draw or Dortmund69%
Hoffenheim or draw54%
Goal lines
Over 1.586%
Over 2.566%
Over 3.544%
Under: 1.5 14% · 2.5 34% · 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
Yes66%
No34%
Most likely score
1–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Hoffenheim | Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 12 |
Longer bars are better within the Bundesliga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Hoffenheim12 / 30 pts
- L
1. FC Köln3–2Hoffenheim - L
Gladbach4–0Hoffenheim - WHoffenheim1–0Bremen
- DHoffenheim3–3Stuttgart
- W
HSV1–2Hoffenheim - WHoffenheim2–1Dortmund
- D
Augsburg2–2Hoffenheim - LHoffenheim1–2Mainz
- L
RB Leipzig5–0Hoffenheim - DHoffenheim1–1Vfl Wolfsburg
Bundesliga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 |  Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | 1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 |  Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Mainz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 |  SC Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 |  Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | HSV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Gladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Schalke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Dortmund a slim edge at 46% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Hoffenheim: 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats across the last 10. Dortmund bring 7 wins, 3 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Hoffenheim, while Dortmund collected 6/12 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 2 Hoffenheim wins, 1 draws, 7 for Dortmund. Those meetings averaged 3.3 goals, with both sides scoring in 7 of the 10. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 66%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 66%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hoffenheim vs Dortmund?
Our model's most likely outcome is Dortmund win, with probabilities of 31% for a Hoffenheim win, 24% for a draw and 46% for an Dortmund win.
Will both teams score in Hoffenheim vs Dortmund?
The model puts both teams scoring at 66% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Hoffenheim vs Dortmund?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Hoffenheim or draw 54%, draw or Dortmund 69%, and either side to win 76%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Hoffenheim vs Dortmund kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 13:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Hoffenheim vs Dortmund being played?
The match is scheduled for PreZero Arena, the home ground of Hoffenheim.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.