Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
HSV or Mainz
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 HSV@ 2.80
Model +4 vs market
X Draw@ 3.60
Model +2 vs market
2 Mainz@ 2.38
Model −6 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
HSV or draw66%
Draw or Mainz62%
Goal lines
Over 1.574%
Over 2.548%
Over 3.527%
Under: 1.5 26% · 2.5 52% · 3.5 73%
Both teams to score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 HSV | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| 14th | Position | 10th |
| 0 | Points | 1 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 0.0 |
| 17th | Attack rank | 14th |
| 8th | Defence rank | 5th |
| 1484 | Elo | 1540 |
| €124m | Squad value | €144m |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Bundesliga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 2
Recent form · last 10
HSV9 / 30 pts
- L
Dortmund2–0HSV - D
Leverkusen1–1HSV - WHSV3–2Freiburg
- W
Frankfurt1–2HSV - LHSV1–2Hoffenheim
- L
Bremen3–1HSV - L
Stuttgart4–0HSV - DHSV1–1Augsburg
- LDortmund3–2HSV
- DHSV1–11. FC Köln
Mainz17 / 30 pts
- DMainz0–0SC Paderborn
- W
1 FC Heidenheim 18460–2Mainz - LMainz1–3Union Berlin
- W
FC St Pauli 19101–2Mainz - LMainz3–4Bayern
- D
Gladbach1–1Mainz - LMainz0–1Freiburg
- WHoffenheim1–2Mainz
- WMainz2–1Frankfurt
- WBremen0–2Mainz
Bundesliga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | 1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Mainz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | SC Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | HSV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Gladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Schalke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Model verdict
HSV are narrow favourites at 38% — this one is far from decided. HSV arrive with 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats from their last 10. For Mainz it reads 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats over the last 10. At home HSV have won 1 of their last 4; Mainz have taken 13 of 15 points on their travels. The draw is live here at 28% — noticeably above the usual rate. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 48%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win HSV vs Mainz?
Our model's most likely outcome is HSV win, with probabilities of 38% for a HSV win, 28% for a draw and 34% for an Mainz win.
Will both teams score in HSV vs Mainz?
The model puts both teams scoring at 54% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for HSV vs Mainz?
Derived from the same model probabilities: HSV or draw 66%, draw or Mainz 62%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does HSV vs Mainz kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 13:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is HSV vs Mainz being played?
The match is scheduled for Volksparkstadion, the home ground of HSV.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.