Best picks
Over 2.5 goals
Bayern win
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Schalke@ 15.00
Model +8 vs market
X Draw@ 8.50
Model +5 vs market
2 Bayern@ 1.14
Model −13 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Draw or Bayern86%
Either side wins84%
Schalke or draw30%
Goal lines
Over 1.592%
Over 2.578%
Over 3.559%
Under: 1.5 8% · 2.5 22% · 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
Yes68%
No32%
Most likely score
1–2at 8%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Schalke | Bayern | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Form pts (last 5) | 11 |
Longer bars are better within the Bundesliga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 2
Recent form · last 10
Schalke10 / 30 pts
- L
Augsburg3–0Schalke - L
RB Leipzig4–2Schalke - DSchalke2–2Frankfurt
- LBayern6–0Schalke
- W
Mainz2–3Schalke - WSchalke2–1Bremen
- L
Freiburg4–0Schalke - WSchalke5–2Hertha Bsc
- L
Hoffenheim2–0Schalke - LSchalke0–3Leverkusen
Bundesliga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 |  Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 |  1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 |  Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Mainz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 |  SC Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 |  HSV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 |  Gladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 | Schalke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Bayern: 70% on the win. Recent form for Schalke: 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats across the last 10. Bayern bring 7 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 4 for Schalke, while Bayern collected 9/12 away points in that stretch. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 78%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 68%. Our 70% on Bayern sits below the market's implied 83% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Schalke vs Bayern?
Our model's most likely outcome is Bayern win, with probabilities of 14% for a Schalke win, 16% for a draw and 70% for an Bayern win.
Will both teams score in Schalke vs Bayern?
The model puts both teams scoring at 68% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Schalke vs Bayern?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Schalke or draw 30%, draw or Bayern 86%, and either side to win 84%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Schalke vs Bayern kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 16:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Schalke vs Bayern being played?
The match is scheduled for Veltins-Arena, the home ground of Schalke.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.