Best picks
Ajax or PSV
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Ajax@ 2.65
Model −2 vs market
X Draw@ 3.90
Model −1 vs market
2 PSV@ 2.35
Model +3 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins77%
Draw or PSV66%
Ajax or draw57%
Goal lines
Over 1.589%
Over 2.572%
Over 3.551%
Under: 1.5 11% · 2.5 28% · 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
Yes72%
No28%
Most likely score
1–1at 9%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Ajax | PSV | |
|---|---|---|
| 4th | Position | 2nd |
| 7 | Points | 10 |
| 2.7 | Goals / game | 3.8 |
| 4th | Attack rank | 1st |
| 1st | Defence rank | 4th |
| 1691 | Elo | 1862 |
| €159m | Squad value | €311m |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 13 |
Longer bars are better within the Eredivisie this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Ajax16 / 30 pts
- W
Telstar0–4Ajax - DAjax2–2Heerenveen
- W
Zwolle0–2Ajax - DHeerenveen0–0Ajax
- LAjax1–2Utrecht
- DAjax2–2PSV
- W
Nac Breda0–2Ajax - W
Heracles Almelo0–3Ajax - LAjax1–2Twente
- D
Feyenoord1–1Ajax
Eredivisie standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 | PSV | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 | Ajax | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 5 |  Go Ahead | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 |  NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 |  Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 9 | Twente | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 |  Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Heerenveen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |  Sparta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Telstar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Willem II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Den Haag | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Model verdict
PSV are narrow favourites at 43% — this one is far from decided. Recent form for Ajax: 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats across the last 10. PSV bring 8 wins, 2 draws from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 0 home wins in 4 for Ajax, while PSV collected 13/15 away points in that stretch. The last 10 head-to-heads: 4 Ajax wins, 3 draws, 3 for PSV. Those meetings averaged 3.8 goals, with both sides scoring in 7 of the 10. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 72%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 72%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ajax vs PSV?
Our model's most likely outcome is PSV win, with probabilities of 34% for a Ajax win, 23% for a draw and 43% for an PSV win.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs PSV?
The model puts both teams scoring at 72% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Ajax vs PSV?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Ajax or draw 57%, draw or PSV 66%, and either side to win 77%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Ajax vs PSV kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 18:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Ajax vs PSV being played?
The match is scheduled for Johan Cruyff ArenA, the home ground of Ajax.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.