Primeira Liga · Matchday 5 · Cidade do Futebol
Santa Clara vs Rio Ave prediction
Best picks
Santa Clara or draw
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Santa Clara@ 1.82
Model −3 vs market
X Draw@ 3.50
Model −1 vs market
2 Rio Ave@ 4.35
Model +3 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Santa Clara or draw75%
Either side wins74%
Draw or Rio Ave51%
Goal lines
Over 1.565%
Over 2.539%
Over 3.519%
Under: 1.5 35% · 2.5 61% · 3.5 81%
Both teams to score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely score
1–0at 15%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Santa Clara | Rio Ave | |
|---|---|---|
| 4th | Position | 13th |
| 8 | Points | 3 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 0.5 |
| 16th | Attack rank | 17th |
| 6th | Defence rank | 15th |
| 1512 | Elo | 1460 |
| €39m | Squad value | €39m |
| 8 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Primeira Liga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 6
Recent form · last 10
Santa Clara16 / 30 pts
- D
Alverca1–1Santa Clara - WSanta Clara1–0Famalicão
- W
Académico de Viseu0–1Santa Clara - DSanta Clara2–2CD Nacional
- L
Porto1–0Santa Clara - WSanta Clara2–0CD Nacional
- D
Arouca2–2Santa Clara - WSanta Clara2–1Braga
- D
Casa Pia0–0Santa Clara - LSanta Clara0–2Rio Ave
Rio Ave9 / 30 pts
- LRio Ave0–4Sporting CP
- W
Estoril Praia0–2Rio Ave - LRio Ave0–2Porto
- L
Gil Vicente1–0Rio Ave - DCasa Pia1–1Rio Ave
- LRio Ave1–4Sporting CP
- DRio Ave0–0Gil Vicente
- L
Vitória SC2–0Rio Ave - DRio Ave2–2Avs Futebol Sad
- WSanta Clara0–2Rio Ave
Primeira Liga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +9 | 12 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 8 |
| 5 |  SL Benfica | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +8 | 7 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 7 |  Marítimo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 |  Amadora | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Braga | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | CD Nacional | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |  Moreirense | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Vitória SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Alverca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Académico de Viseu | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Santa Clara edge it at 49%, with plenty of draw risk at 26%. Santa Clara arrive with 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10. For Rio Ave it reads 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats over the last 10. At home Santa Clara have won 3 of their last 5; Rio Ave have taken 7 of 15 points on their travels. The last 6 head-to-heads: 1 Santa Clara wins, 2 draws, 3 for Rio Ave. The fixture has produced 1.7 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 2 of the last 6. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 39%. The model leans BTTS No, pricing Yes at just 43%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Our model's most likely outcome is Santa Clara win, with probabilities of 49% for a Santa Clara win, 26% for a draw and 25% for an Rio Ave win.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
The model puts both teams scoring at 43% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Santa Clara vs Rio Ave?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Santa Clara or draw 75%, draw or Rio Ave 51%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Santa Clara vs Rio Ave kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 14:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Santa Clara vs Rio Ave being played?
The match is scheduled for Cidade do Futebol, the home ground of Santa Clara.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.