Best picks
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
RC Lens win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 RC Lens@ 1.49
Model −10 vs market
X Draw@ 4.70
Model +3 vs market
2 Lorient@ 7.00
Model +7 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
RC Lens or draw79%
Either side wins76%
Draw or Lorient44%
Goal lines
Over 1.580%
Over 2.556%
Over 3.534%
Under: 1.5 20% · 2.5 44% · 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely score
1–1at 11%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 RC Lens | Lorient | |
|---|---|---|
| 7th | Position | 14th |
| 3 | Points | 1 |
| 3.0 | Goals / game | 0.5 |
| 4th | Attack rank | 12th |
| 3rd | Defence rank | 12th |
| 1664 | Elo | 1497 |
| €239m | Squad value | €131m |
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 5 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
RC Lens17 / 30 pts
- L
Strasbourg2–1RC Lens - WRC Lens5–2Auxerre
- W
Olympique Lyon0–4RC Lens - LRC Lens0–2PSG
- WRC Lens1–0FC Nantes
- D
Nice1–1RC Lens - D
Brest3–3RC Lens - WRC Lens3–2Toulouse
- L
Lille3–0RC Lens - WRC Lens5–1Angers SCO
Ligue 1 standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 |  Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 |  Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 |  Troyes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | RC Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Marseille | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Angers SCO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Brest | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | PSG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Le Mans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 | Lorient | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Le Havre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Nice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
RC Lens go in as the model's favourite with a 56% win probability. RC Lens arrive with 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10. For Lorient it reads 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 defeats over the last 10. At home RC Lens have won 4 of their last 5; Lorient have taken 5 of 15 points on their travels. The last 8 head-to-heads: 4 RC Lens wins, 2 draws, 2 for Lorient. The fixture has produced 3.1 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 4 of the last 8. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 56%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 56%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 65% for RC Lens against our 56% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win RC Lens vs Lorient?
Our model's most likely outcome is RC Lens win, with probabilities of 56% for a RC Lens win, 24% for a draw and 21% for an Lorient win.
Will both teams score in RC Lens vs Lorient?
The model puts both teams scoring at 56% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for RC Lens vs Lorient?
Derived from the same model probabilities: RC Lens or draw 79%, draw or Lorient 44%, and either side to win 76%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does RC Lens vs Lorient kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 15:15 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is RC Lens vs Lorient being played?
The match is scheduled for Stade Bollaert-Delelis, the home ground of RC Lens.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.