Best picks
Groningen or Twente
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Groningen@ 3.25
Model +4 vs market
X Draw@ 3.75
Model +2 vs market
2 Twente@ 2.05
Model −6 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Draw or Twente67%
Groningen or draw60%
Goal lines
Over 1.580%
Over 2.556%
Over 3.533%
Under: 1.5 20% · 2.5 44% · 3.5 67%
Both teams to score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Groningen | Twente | |
|---|---|---|
| 10th | Position | 9th |
| 6 | Points | 6 |
| 2.3 | Goals / game | 2.3 |
| 10th | Attack rank | 6th |
| 8th | Defence rank | 2nd |
| 1526 | Elo | 1662 |
| €41m | Squad value | €84m |
| 9 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Eredivisie this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Groningen16 / 30 pts
Eredivisie standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  PSV | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +4 | 8 |
| 4 |  Ajax | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +6 | 7 |
| 5 |  Go Ahead | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 |  NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 8 |  Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 9 | Twente | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 |  Heerenveen | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 |  Sparta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 |  Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 |  Telstar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 |  Willem II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 16 |  Den Haag | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 17 |  Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
Model verdict
A close call: Twente edge it at 40%, with plenty of draw risk at 27%. Recent form for Groningen: 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats across the last 10. Twente bring 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 2 home wins in 5 for Groningen, while Twente collected 10/18 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 0 Groningen wins, 4 draws, 4 for Twente. Those meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both sides scoring in 5 of the 8. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 56%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 60%. Our 40% on Twente sits below the market's implied 46% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Groningen vs Twente?
Our model's most likely outcome is Twente win, with probabilities of 33% for a Groningen win, 27% for a draw and 40% for an Twente win.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Twente?
The model puts both teams scoring at 60% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Groningen vs Twente?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Groningen or draw 60%, draw or Twente 67%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Groningen vs Twente kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 10:15 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Groningen vs Twente being played?
The match is scheduled for Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion, the home ground of Groningen.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.