Best picks
Alavés or Osasuna
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Alavés@ 2.25
Model +2 vs market
X Draw@ 3.10
Model −4 vs market
2 Osasuna@ 3.50
Model +1 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins73%
Alavés or draw72%
Draw or Osasuna55%
Goal lines
Over 1.569%
Over 2.543%
Over 3.522%
Under: 1.5 31% · 2.5 57% · 3.5 78%
Both teams to score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Alavés | Osasuna | |
|---|---|---|
| 4th | Position | 5th |
| 7 | Points | 7 |
| 1.7 | Goals / game | 1.0 |
| 15th | Attack rank | 14th |
| 11th | Defence rank | 6th |
| 1497 | Elo | 1501 |
| €74m | Squad value | €102m |
| 10 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Primera Division this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Alavés17 / 30 pts
- WAlavés1–0Villarreal
- D
Rayo Vallecano1–1Alavés - WAlavés3–0Getafe
- LAlavés1–2Rayo Vallecano
- W
Real Oviedo0–1Alavés - WAlavés1–0Barça
- D
Elche1–1Alavés - LAlavés2–4Athletic
- WAlavés2–1Rcd Mallorca
- L
Real Madrid2–1Alavés
Primera Division standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 |  Atlético Madrid | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Alavés | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 |  Sevilla FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 |  Real Betis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 |  Deportivo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 |  Santander | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |  Levante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Getafe | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 |  Celta | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 |  Valencia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 19 | Elche | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Model verdict
The model gives Alavés a slim edge at 45% in a tight matchup. Alavés arrive with 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10. For Osasuna it reads 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats over the last 10. At home Alavés have won 4 of their last 6; Osasuna have taken 3 of 12 points on their travels. The last 8 head-to-heads: 0 Alavés wins, 3 draws, 5 for Osasuna. The fixture has produced 2.4 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 8. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 43%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Alavés vs Osasuna?
Our model's most likely outcome is Alavés win, with probabilities of 45% for a Alavés win, 27% for a draw and 28% for an Osasuna win.
Will both teams score in Alavés vs Osasuna?
The model puts both teams scoring at 47% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Alavés vs Osasuna?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Alavés or draw 72%, draw or Osasuna 55%, and either side to win 73%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Alavés vs Osasuna kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 16:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Alavés vs Osasuna being played?
The match is scheduled for Estadio de Mendizorroza, the home ground of Alavés.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.