Bundesliga · Matchday 2 · Benteler-Arena
SC Paderborn vs Freiburg prediction
Best picks
SC Paderborn or Freiburg
BTTS: Yes
Over 2.5 goals
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 SC Paderborn@ 3.40
Model +16 vs market
X Draw@ 3.75
Model +1 vs market
2 Freiburg@ 2.00
Model −17 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
SC Paderborn or draw70%
Draw or Freiburg56%
Goal lines
Over 1.580%
Over 2.556%
Over 3.534%
Under: 1.5 20% · 2.5 44% · 3.5 66%
Both teams to score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 SC Paderborn | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| 11th | Position | 2nd |
| 1 | Points | 3 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 4.0 |
| 11th | Attack rank | 9th |
| 6th | Defence rank | 9th |
| 1503 | Elo | 1554 |
| €5m | Squad value | €248m |
| 1 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Bundesliga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Recent form · last 10
SC Paderborn1 / 3 pts
Freiburg16 / 30 pts
- WFreiburg4–1Bremen
- WFreiburg4–1RB Leipzig
- L
HSV3–2Freiburg - DFreiburg1–1Vfl Wolfsburg
- L
Dortmund4–0Freiburg - WFreiburg2–11 FC Heidenheim 1846
- W
Mainz0–1Freiburg - LFreiburg2–3Bayern
- W
FC St Pauli 19101–2Freiburg - LFreiburg0–1Union Berlin
Bundesliga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 |  Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 |  1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 |  Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Mainz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | SC Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 |  Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 |  Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | HSV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 |  Gladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Schalke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 |  Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives SC Paderborn a slim edge at 44% in a tight matchup. For Freiburg it reads 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 defeats over the last 10. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 56%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 60%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 28% for SC Paderborn against our 44% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win SC Paderborn vs Freiburg?
Our model's most likely outcome is SC Paderborn win, with probabilities of 44% for a SC Paderborn win, 26% for a draw and 30% for an Freiburg win.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn vs Freiburg?
The model puts both teams scoring at 60% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for SC Paderborn vs Freiburg?
Derived from the same model probabilities: SC Paderborn or draw 70%, draw or Freiburg 56%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does SC Paderborn vs Freiburg kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 13:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is SC Paderborn vs Freiburg being played?
The match is scheduled for Benteler-Arena, the home ground of SC Paderborn.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.