Primera Division · Matchday 4 · Estadio del Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano vs Santander prediction
Best picks
Under 3.5 goals
Rayo Vallecano or Santander
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Rayo Vallecano@ 2.30
Model +4 vs market
X Draw@ 3.50
Model −1 vs market
2 Santander@ 3.00
Model −3 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Rayo Vallecano or draw71%
Draw or Santander55%
Goal lines
Over 1.571%
Over 2.546%
Over 3.525%
Under: 1.5 29% · 2.5 54% · 3.5 75%
Both teams to score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Rayo Vallecano | Santander | |
|---|---|---|
| 18th | Position | 9th |
| 1 | Points | 4 |
| 1.3 | Goals / game | 1.7 |
| 19th | Attack rank | 6th |
| 5th | Defence rank | 16th |
| 1522 | Elo | 1501 |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Primera Division this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Recent form · last 10
Rayo Vallecano16 / 30 pts
- L
Barça5–2Rayo Vallecano - DRayo Vallecano1–1Alavés
- L
Sevilla FC2–1Rayo Vallecano - WAlavés1–2Rayo Vallecano
- WRayo Vallecano2–0Villarreal
- D
Valencia1–1Rayo Vallecano - DRayo Vallecano1–1Girona
- W
Getafe0–2Rayo Vallecano - DRayo Vallecano3–3Real Sociedad
- WRayo Vallecano1–0Espanyol
Primera Division standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 |  Atlético Madrid | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 | Alavés | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 |  Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Sevilla FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 |  Real Betis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 |  Deportivo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Santander | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 |  Levante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 |  Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Getafe | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 |  Celta | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 | Valencia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 19 |  Elche | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Model verdict
The model gives Rayo Vallecano a slim edge at 45% in a tight matchup. Recent form for Rayo Vallecano: 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats across the last 10. Santander bring 1 win, 1 draw, 1 defeat from their last 3 on the road to this one. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 46%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Santander?
Our model's most likely outcome is Rayo Vallecano win, with probabilities of 45% for a Rayo Vallecano win, 26% for a draw and 29% for an Santander win.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Santander?
The model puts both teams scoring at 50% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Rayo Vallecano vs Santander?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Rayo Vallecano or draw 71%, draw or Santander 55%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Rayo Vallecano vs Santander kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 16:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Santander being played?
The match is scheduled for Estadio del Rayo Vallecano, the home ground of Rayo Vallecano.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.