Best picks
Over 2.5 goals
PSV win
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
More markets
Double chance
PSV or draw81%
Either side wins81%
Draw or Shaktar38%
Goal lines
Over 2.563%
Under: 2.5 37%
Both teams to score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely score
2–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 PSV | Shaktar | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Form pts (last 5) | 6 |
Longer bars are better within the UEFA Champions League this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 1
Recent form · last 10
PSV26 / 30 pts
UEFA Champions League standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club Brugge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |  PAE AEK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |  LASK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |  Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |  Inter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |  Porto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |  Man City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |  Dortmund | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |  Lille | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |  Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |  Barça | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |  Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |  Stuttgart | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |  Viking | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |  Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |  Atlético Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |  PSG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |  Sl. Bratislava | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 |  Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 |  Arsenal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 |  Sporting CP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 |  Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 |  Fenerbahçe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 |  Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | PSV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | Shaktar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 |  Bayern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 |  Bodø/Glimt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 |  Man United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 |  Sabah FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 |  Como 1907 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 34 |  RB Leipzig | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 35 |  Slavia Praha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 |  RC Lens | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Model verdict
Our model makes PSV clear favourites at 62%. Recent form for PSV: 8 wins, 2 draws across the last 10. Shaktar bring 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 4 home wins in 5 for PSV, while Shaktar collected 1/15 away points in that stretch. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 63%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 58%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win PSV vs Shaktar?
Our model's most likely outcome is PSV win, with probabilities of 62% for a PSV win, 19% for a draw and 19% for an Shaktar win.
Will both teams score in PSV vs Shaktar?
The model puts both teams scoring at 58% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for PSV vs Shaktar?
Derived from the same model probabilities: PSV or draw 81%, draw or Shaktar 38%, and either side to win 81%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does PSV vs Shaktar kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-10 · 16:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is PSV vs Shaktar being played?
The match is scheduled for Philips Stadion, the home ground of PSV.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.