Best picks
Parma or Monza
Under 2.5 goals
BTTS: No
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Parma@ 2.38
Model +3 vs market
X Draw@ 3.00
Model −3 vs market
2 Monza@ 2.90
Model −1 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins72%
Parma or draw69%
Draw or Monza58%
Goal lines
Over 1.567%
Over 2.541%
Over 3.521%
Under: 1.5 33% · 2.5 59% · 3.5 79%
Both teams to score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely score
1–1at 13%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Parma | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | Position | 18th |
| 0 | Points | 0 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 19th | Attack rank | 16th |
| 11th | Defence rank | 20th |
| 1460 | Elo | 1319 |
| €143m | Squad value | €41m |
| 3 | Form pts (last 5) | 3 |
Longer bars are better within the Serie A this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 2
Recent form · last 10
Parma11 / 30 pts
Serie A standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 6 |
| 2 |  Inter | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Milan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 |  Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 |  Atalanta | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 7 |  Udinese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 |  Como 1907 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 9 |  Frosinone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10 |  Napoli | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 |  Lecce | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Torino | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Bologna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 | Parma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Monza | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 19 |  Venezia FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 0 |
Model verdict
Parma are narrow favourites at 42% — this one is far from decided. Parma arrive with 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 defeats from their last 10. For Monza it reads 1 win, 9 defeats over the last 10. At home Parma have won 2 of their last 5; Monza have taken 3 of 15 points on their travels. A cagey game is on the cards: Over 2.5 sits at just 41%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Parma vs Monza?
Our model's most likely outcome is Parma win, with probabilities of 42% for a Parma win, 28% for a draw and 31% for an Monza win.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Monza?
The model puts both teams scoring at 47% — less likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Parma vs Monza?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Parma or draw 69%, draw or Monza 58%, and either side to win 72%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Parma vs Monza kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 13:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Parma vs Monza being played?
The match is scheduled for Stadio Ennio Tardini, the home ground of Parma.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.