Ligue 1 · Matchday 3 · Groupama Stadium
Olympique Lyon vs Auxerre prediction
Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Olympique Lyon win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Olympique Lyon@ 1.53
Model −11 vs market
X Draw@ 4.60
Model +3 vs market
2 Auxerre@ 7.20
Model +8 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Olympique Lyon or draw79%
Either side wins76%
Draw or Auxerre46%
Goal lines
Over 1.578%
Over 2.554%
Over 3.532%
Under: 1.5 22% · 2.5 46% · 3.5 68%
Both teams to score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Olympique Lyon | Auxerre | |
|---|---|---|
| 4th | Position | 18th |
| 4 | Points | 0 |
| 1.5 | Goals / game | 1.5 |
| 6th | Attack rank | 16th |
| 4th | Defence rank | 16th |
| 1631 | Elo | 1474 |
| €236m | Squad value | €120m |
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 9 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Head-to-head · last 6
Recent form · last 10
Olympique Lyon17 / 30 pts
Auxerre15 / 30 pts
- LAuxerre1–3Angers SCO
- L
RC Lens5–2Auxerre - W
Lille0–2Auxerre - WAuxerre2–1Nice
- WAuxerre3–1Angers SCO
- LOlympique Lyon3–2Auxerre
- D
Monaco2–2Auxerre - DAuxerre0–0FC Nantes
- D
Le Havre1–1Auxerre - WAuxerre3–0Brest
Ligue 1 standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 |  Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 |  Troyes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | RC Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Marseille | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Angers SCO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Strasbourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 | Brest | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 |  PSG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 |  Le Mans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 |  Lorient | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Nice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 | Auxerre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Olympique Lyon: 54% on the win. Olympique Lyon arrive with 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10. For Auxerre it reads 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats over the last 10. At home Olympique Lyon have won 3 of their last 6; Auxerre have taken 5 of 15 points on their travels. The last 6 head-to-heads: 3 Olympique Lyon wins, 2 draws, 1 for Auxerre. The fixture has produced 3.2 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 5 of the last 6. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 54%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 55%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 65% for Olympique Lyon against our 54% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Olympique Lyon vs Auxerre?
Our model's most likely outcome is Olympique Lyon win, with probabilities of 54% for a Olympique Lyon win, 24% for a draw and 21% for an Auxerre win.
Will both teams score in Olympique Lyon vs Auxerre?
The model puts both teams scoring at 55% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Olympique Lyon vs Auxerre?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Olympique Lyon or draw 79%, draw or Auxerre 46%, and either side to win 76%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Olympique Lyon vs Auxerre kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-04 · 17:00 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Olympique Lyon vs Auxerre being played?
The match is scheduled for Groupama Stadium, the home ground of Olympique Lyon.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.