Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Nice or Le Mans
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Nice@ 1.85
Model −10 vs market
X Draw@ 3.60
In line with the market
2 Le Mans@ 4.10
Model +10 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins74%
Nice or draw67%
Draw or Le Mans59%
Goal lines
Over 1.579%
Over 2.555%
Over 3.533%
Under: 1.5 21% · 2.5 45% · 3.5 67%
Both teams to score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Nice | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| 17th | Position | 13th |
| 1 | Points | 1 |
| 0.0 | Goals / game | 2.0 |
| 15th | Attack rank | 9th |
| 15th | Defence rank | 18th |
| 1483 | Elo | 1493 |
| 3 | Form pts (last 5) | 1 |
Longer bars are better within the Ligue 1 this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Recent form · last 10
Ligue 1 standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 |  Monaco | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 |  Paris FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 4 |  Olympique Lyon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 |  Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 |  Troyes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 |  RC Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Marseille | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 |  Angers SCO | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 |  Strasbourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 11 |  Brest | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 |  PSG | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Le Mans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 14 |  Lorient | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 |  Le Havre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 |  Toulouse | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Nice | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 |  Auxerre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Model verdict
The model gives Nice a slim edge at 41% in a tight matchup. Nice arrive with 6 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 55%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 59%. The market reads it differently: bookmakers imply 51% for Nice against our 41% — the model-vs-market table below breaks the gap down.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nice vs Le Mans?
Our model's most likely outcome is Nice win, with probabilities of 41% for a Nice win, 26% for a draw and 33% for an Le Mans win.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Le Mans?
The model puts both teams scoring at 59% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Nice vs Le Mans?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Nice or draw 67%, draw or Le Mans 59%, and either side to win 74%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Nice vs Le Mans kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 18:45 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Nice vs Le Mans being played?
The match is scheduled for Stade de Nice, the home ground of Nice.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.