Bundesliga · Matchday 2 · Mercedes-Benz Arena
Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln prediction
Best picks
Over 2.5 goals
BTTS: Yes
Stuttgart win
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Stuttgart@ 1.50
Model −3 vs market
X Draw@ 5.00
Model +1 vs market
2 1. FC Köln@ 5.40
Model +2 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Stuttgart or draw81%
Either side wins80%
Draw or 1. FC Köln39%
Goal lines
Over 1.588%
Over 2.570%
Over 3.548%
Under: 1.5 12% · 2.5 30% · 3.5 52%
Both teams to score
Yes65%
No35%
Most likely score
2–1at 9%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Stuttgart | 1. FC Köln | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Form pts (last 5) | 4 |
Longer bars are better within the Bundesliga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 8
Recent form · last 10
Stuttgart15 / 30 pts
- L
Bayern5–1Stuttgart - D
Frankfurt2–2Stuttgart - WStuttgart3–1Leverkusen
- D
Hoffenheim3–3Stuttgart - DStuttgart1–1Bremen
- LBayern4–2Stuttgart
- WStuttgart4–0HSV
- LStuttgart0–2Dortmund
- W
Augsburg2–5Stuttgart - WStuttgart1–0RB Leipzig
1. FC Köln11 / 30 pts
- W1. FC Köln3–2Hoffenheim
- LBayern5–11. FC Köln
- L1. FC Köln1–31 FC Heidenheim 1846
- D
Union Berlin2–21. FC Köln - L1. FC Köln1–2Leverkusen
- D
FC St Pauli 19101–11. FC Köln - W1. FC Köln3–1Bremen
- DFrankfurt2–21. FC Köln
- D1. FC Köln3–3Gladbach
- DHSV1–11. FC Köln
Bundesliga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 |  Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 |  Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | 1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 |  Mainz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 |  SC Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | HSV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 | Gladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Schalke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Stuttgart: 61% on the win. Recent form for Stuttgart: 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats across the last 10. 1. FC Köln bring 2 wins, 5 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The venue split matters: 3 home wins in 5 for Stuttgart, while 1. FC Köln collected 4/15 away points in that stretch. The last 8 head-to-heads: 5 Stuttgart wins, 2 draws, 1 for 1. FC Köln. Those meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both sides scoring in 4 of the 8. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 70%. Both teams to score is priced Yes at 65%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model's most likely outcome is Stuttgart win, with probabilities of 61% for a Stuttgart win, 20% for a draw and 19% for an 1. FC Köln win.
Will both teams score in Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
The model puts both teams scoring at 65% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Stuttgart or draw 81%, draw or 1. FC Köln 39%, and either side to win 80%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-04 · 18:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is scheduled for Mercedes-Benz Arena, the home ground of Stuttgart.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.