Bundesliga · Matchday 2 · BayArena
Leverkusen vs Union Berlin prediction
Best picks
Over 2.5 goals
Leverkusen win
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Leverkusen@ 1.44
Model −5 vs market
X Draw@ 5.00
Model +2 vs market
2 Union Berlin@ 6.50
Model +3 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Leverkusen or draw83%
Either side wins79%
Draw or Union Berlin38%
Goal lines
Over 1.584%
Over 2.563%
Over 3.541%
Under: 1.5 16% · 2.5 37% · 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely score
2–1at 10%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Leverkusen | Union Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Form pts (last 5) | 8 |
Longer bars are better within the Bundesliga this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings.
Head-to-head · last 10
Recent form · last 10
Leverkusen14 / 30 pts
- L
Elversberg3–2Leverkusen - DLeverkusen1–1HSV
- L
Stuttgart3–1Leverkusen - WLeverkusen4–1RB Leipzig
- W
1. FC Köln1–2Leverkusen - LLeverkusen1–2Augsburg
- W
Dortmund0–1Leverkusen - WLeverkusen6–3Vfl Wolfsburg
- D
1 FC Heidenheim 18463–3Leverkusen - L
Arsenal2–0Leverkusen
Union Berlin12 / 30 pts
- DUnion Berlin3–3Frankfurt
- WUnion Berlin4–0Augsburg
- W
Mainz1–3Union Berlin - DUnion Berlin2–21. FC Köln
- LRB Leipzig3–1Union Berlin
- LUnion Berlin1–2Vfl Wolfsburg
- L1 FC Heidenheim 18463–1Union Berlin
- DUnion Berlin1–1FC St Pauli 1910
- L
Bayern4–0Union Berlin - W
Freiburg0–1Union Berlin
Bundesliga standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 5 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Elversberg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | 1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Union Berlin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Frankfurt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Mainz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 |  SC Paderborn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Leverkusen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 |  Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | HSV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 |  Bremen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 16 |  Gladbach | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 |  Schalke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Stuttgart | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Model verdict
The numbers lean firmly towards Leverkusen: 62% on the win. Leverkusen arrive with 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats from their last 10. For Union Berlin it reads 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats over the last 10. At home Leverkusen have won 2 of their last 4; Union Berlin have taken 6 of 15 points on their travels. The last 10 head-to-heads: 5 Leverkusen wins, 4 draws, 1 for Union Berlin. The fixture has produced 2.2 goals a game, and both teams found the net in 3 of the last 10. Goals look likely — the model prices Over 2.5 at 63%. The model expects both defences to be breached: BTTS Yes at 59%.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our model's most likely outcome is Leverkusen win, with probabilities of 62% for a Leverkusen win, 21% for a draw and 17% for an Union Berlin win.
Will both teams score in Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
The model puts both teams scoring at 59% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Leverkusen or draw 83%, draw or Union Berlin 38%, and either side to win 79%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Leverkusen vs Union Berlin kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-05 · 13:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Leverkusen vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is scheduled for BayArena, the home ground of Leverkusen.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.