Best picks
Over 1.5 goals
Málaga or Levante
BTTS: Yes
Each dial shows the model's published probability for that call — the same number the track record grades after full time.
1 Málaga@ 2.50
Model +6 vs market
X Draw@ 3.30
Model −4 vs market
2 Levante@ 2.88
Model −2 vs market
Market bars are the fair probabilities implied by the odds (bookmaker margin removed); differences are percentage points. A higher model number is our model's opinion, not guaranteed value. Odds move constantly — shown as fetched 2026-09-04. Informational only, not betting advice.
More markets
Double chance
Either side wins75%
Málaga or draw69%
Draw or Levante56%
Goal lines
Over 1.575%
Over 2.551%
Over 3.529%
Under: 1.5 25% · 2.5 49% · 3.5 71%
Both teams to score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely score
1–1at 12%
The single likeliest cell of the scoreline grid — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
Team comparison
 Málaga | Levante | |
|---|---|---|
| 20th | Position | 10th |
| 1 | Points | 4 |
| 0.3 | Goals / game | 1.7 |
| 18th | Attack rank | 9th |
| 17th | Defence rank | 19th |
| 1487 | Elo | 1491 |
| €8m | Squad value | €113m |
| 1 | Form pts (last 5) | 7 |
Longer bars are better within the Primera Division this season. Attack, defence and Elo come from our model ratings. Squad values are community estimates, updated weekly — sourced as documented on our data page.
Recent form · last 10
Málaga1 / 9 pts
- L
Real Madrid4–0Málaga - DMálaga1–1Deportivo
- L
Atlético Madrid2–0Málaga
Levante17 / 30 pts
- WLevante5–2Real Betis
- D
Osasuna0–0Levante - L
Espanyol3–0Levante - LReal Betis2–1Levante
- WLevante2–0Rcd Mallorca
- W
Celta2–3Levante - WLevante3–2Osasuna
- L
Villarreal5–1Levante - DEspanyol0–0Levante
- WLevante2–0Sevilla FC
Primera Division standingsLeague hub →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barça | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +10 | 9 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 4 |  Alavés | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | Sevilla FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Deportivo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 |  Santander | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Levante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 |  Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarreal | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Celta | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 17 |  Valencia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 18 |  Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 19 |  Elche | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 20 | Málaga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Model verdict
A close call: Málaga edge it at 44%, with plenty of draw risk at 25%. Recent form for Málaga: 1 draw, 2 defeats across the last 3. Levante bring 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats from their last 10 on the road to this one. The Over/Under 2.5 call is genuinely tight at 51%. Our 44% on Málaga sits above the market's implied 38% — a gap worth understanding before trusting either number.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Málaga vs Levante?
Our model's most likely outcome is Málaga win, with probabilities of 44% for a Málaga win, 25% for a draw and 31% for an Levante win.
Will both teams score in Málaga vs Levante?
The model puts both teams scoring at 55% — more likely than not.
What is the double chance prediction for Málaga vs Levante?
Derived from the same model probabilities: Málaga or draw 69%, draw or Levante 56%, and either side to win 75%. Double chance wins often and pays little — read the probability, not the streak.
When does Málaga vs Levante kick off?
Kick-off is scheduled for 2026-09-06 · 16:30 UTC (shown in your local time on this page).
Where is Málaga vs Levante being played?
The match is scheduled for Estadio La Rosaleda, the home ground of Málaga.
How are these predictions made?
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles statistical model fitted on years of results, with recent form weighted more heavily. Every prediction is recorded permanently, and our full track record is public.