BTTS rates by league: five seasons of real numbers
Published
“Both teams to score” is usually discussed as if football had one base rate. It doesn’t. Measured across the ten competitions in our results database — every finished match from the 2021-22 season through 2025-26, and the 2021 through 2025 Brasileirão — BTTS rates by league span almost twelve percentage points. A bettor pricing a Bundesliga fixture and a Primeira Liga fixture off the same gut number is wrong about at least one of them before kickoff.
All figures below were computed directly from that database on 31 August 2026. Nothing is quoted from a third party, and we’ll recompute the tables each season rather than let them go stale.
The table: five full seasons per league
| Competition | Matches | BTTS % | Avg. goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 1,530 | 60.1% | 3.18 |
| Champions League* | 503 | 56.9% | 3.35 |
| Eredivisie | 1,530 | 56.5% | 3.06 |
| Premier League | 1,900 | 55.3% | 2.93 |
| Ligue 1 | 1,678 | 55.1% | 2.82 |
| La Liga | 1,900 | 51.8% | 2.59 |
| Serie A | 1,900 | 51.4% | 2.61 |
| Championship | 2,760 | 51.3% | 2.54 |
| Primeira Liga | 1,530 | 49.3% | 2.65 |
| Brasileirão | 1,900 | 48.6% | 2.41 |
* Champions League data covers 2023-24 to 2025-26, the seasons in our dataset.
Two things jump out. The Bundesliga is not just first — it clears the field by more than three points, and in none of the five seasons did its BTTS rate drop below 56.9%. And the bottom of the table is South American and Portuguese: the Brasileirão and Primeira Liga are the only competitions where a BTTS bet has been a sub-50% proposition over the full sample.
BTTS is not the same thing as goals
Sort the table by average goals and it does not reproduce the BTTS order. The Primeira Liga averages more goals per game (2.65) than La Liga (2.59), yet its BTTS rate is two and a half points lower. The Champions League out-scores everyone at 3.35 goals per game but sits second, not first, on BTTS.
The explanation is scoreline shape. BTTS doesn’t care how many goals arrive — it cares that they arrive on both sides. A league where strong teams routinely win 3-0 piles up goals without paying BTTS; a league of trading blows at 2-1 pays it constantly. That distinction is exactly why we model both teams to score as its own probability from each side’s scoring rates, rather than deriving it lazily from a goals line — the mechanics are in our BTTS probability guide.
League identity is real but not stable season to season
The five-season averages hide real movement. The Premier League swung from 50.0% BTTS in 2021-22 to 61.6% in 2023-24 and has drifted back to 56.1% since. The Primeira Liga collapsed to 43.1% in 2022-23 — the lowest single-season figure anywhere in our dataset — then rebounded above 53% the following year. Serie A has fallen almost every season, from 57.4% in 2021-22 to 45.3% in 2025-26.
The honest reading: the league you’re in shifts the base rate by several points, but a five-season league average is a prior, not a prediction. It tells you where the market’s centre of gravity should be; it doesn’t price Tuesday’s fixture. Team-level attack and defence rates, which is what our model actually uses, move the number much further than the league badge does.
How to use these numbers
- As a sanity check: if a price implies 60% BTTS in a league whose base rate is 49%, something specific about those two teams had better justify eleven points.
- As a cross-league correction: the same “both teams look lively” instinct is worth genuinely different amounts in Dortmund and in Braga.
- Not as a staking system: a base rate is the starting point our per-match probabilities update away from, not a bet in itself.
Our live per-match BTTS probabilities sit on the BTTS tips page, and every league page carries the per-club version of this table — each club’s BTTS rate over its last 30 matches, sample size included. The same dataset drives the over 2.5 rates by league companion piece. The dataset itself — where it comes from and what it covers — is documented on the data page.