https://footinsights.com/blog/ Statistical football prediction guides, market math and honest model transparency from FootInsights. en Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://footinsights.com/blog/first-team-to-score-betting-explained/https://footinsights.com/blog/first-team-to-score-betting-explained/Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTFirst team to score betting explained: the competing-Poisson formula that prices it, a worked example, and why the margin hides in the No Goal price. https://footinsights.com/blog/how-to-compare-football-prediction-sites/https://footinsights.com/blog/how-to-compare-football-prediction-sites/Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTMost rankings compare numbers that were never comparable. How to compare football prediction sites properly: one shared fixture set, one market, one score. https://footinsights.com/blog/monte-carlo-simulation-football-season/https://footinsights.com/blog/monte-carlo-simulation-football-season/Fri, 04 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTMonte Carlo simulation in football, explained: how thousands of simulated seasons turn match probabilities into title and relegation odds — and their limits. https://footinsights.com/blog/can-you-beat-the-bookmaker-with-maths/https://footinsights.com/blog/can-you-beat-the-bookmaker-with-maths/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTYes, in principle — and almost nobody does. What the closing market actually gets right, why apparent edges are usually model error, and what our own backtest found. https://footinsights.com/blog/easiest-football-league-to-predict/https://footinsights.com/blog/easiest-football-league-to-predict/Thu, 03 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTMost answers to this are opinion — MLS, Ligue 1, Scotland. We measured it instead, using the closing market's own record across nine leagues and 16,628 matches. https://footinsights.com/blog/brasileirao-predictions-explained/https://footinsights.com/blog/brasileirao-predictions-explained/Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTBrazil's Série A draws more, scores less and defends home ground harder than any of the nine leagues in our dataset. Here's what that does to a prediction. https://footinsights.com/blog/correct-score-betting-explained/https://footinsights.com/blog/correct-score-betting-explained/Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTCorrect score betting, priced honestly: how a scoreline grid ranks every result, why even the top pick sits near 12%, and why this market's margin is the worst. https://footinsights.com/blog/elo-rating-system-football/https://footinsights.com/blog/elo-rating-system-football/Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTHow the Elo rating system in football turns results into ratings and ratings into probabilities — the formulas, the draw problem, and what Elo cannot price. https://footinsights.com/blog/favourite-longshot-bias-in-football/https://footinsights.com/blog/favourite-longshot-bias-in-football/Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe favourite-longshot bias explained: why longshot odds hide bigger margins than favourites, the math behind it, and how to spot it in any betting record. https://footinsights.com/blog/home-advantage-in-football/https://footinsights.com/blog/home-advantage-in-football/Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTWhat home advantage in football is really worth, where it comes from, why it keeps shrinking, and how prediction models turn it into a number. https://footinsights.com/blog/how-often-does-the-favourite-win/https://footinsights.com/blog/how-often-does-the-favourite-win/Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTPublished answers range from under 50% to 58%. Across 16,628 matches with closing odds in nine leagues, the favourite wins 53.1% — and the league matters more than you'd think. https://footinsights.com/blog/most-common-football-score/https://footinsights.com/blog/most-common-football-score/Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT1-1, in 12.2% of matches — but the answer changes depending on whether you count scorelines or results. The full distribution from 16,992 matches across nine leagues. https://footinsights.com/blog/why-is-football-hard-to-predict/https://footinsights.com/blog/why-is-football-hard-to-predict/Tue, 01 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMTNot because the teams are unknowable. Because football is low-scoring, and a sport where one goal decides everything hands most of the outcome to variance. https://footinsights.com/blog/accumulator-betting-math/https://footinsights.com/blog/accumulator-betting-math/Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTAccumulator betting math without the hype: how bookmaker margins compound with every leg, why correlated picks mislead, and how to price a multiple honestly. https://footinsights.com/blog/betting-odds-formats-explained/https://footinsights.com/blog/betting-odds-formats-explained/Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTBetting odds formats explained with conversions in both directions — and why the format a book shows you decides how easily you can see what it is charging. https://footinsights.com/blog/btts-rates-by-league/https://footinsights.com/blog/btts-rates-by-league/Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTBTTS rates by league, measured on 16,000+ matches from 2021-22 to 2025-26: the Bundesliga clears 60%, the Brasileirão sits under 49%, and why the gap matters. https://footinsights.com/blog/champions-league-2026-27-league-phase-draw/https://footinsights.com/blog/champions-league-2026-27-league-phase-draw/Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe Champions League 2026-27 league phase draw in numbers: 144 fixtures, a 99% favourite, one true coin flip, and the model's first read on matchday 1. https://footinsights.com/blog/europa-league-2026-27-league-phase-draw/https://footinsights.com/blog/europa-league-2026-27-league-phase-draw/Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe Europa League 2026-27 league phase draw: 36 clubs, 144 fixtures from 16 September to 28 January — and why our predictions for it arrive only after calibration. https://footinsights.com/blog/how-injuries-affect-football-predictions/https://footinsights.com/blog/how-injuries-affect-football-predictions/Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTHow injuries affect football predictions, quantified: what a key absence is worth in goals, why the market prices it first, and when team news really matters. https://footinsights.com/blog/kelly-criterion-football-betting/https://footinsights.com/blog/kelly-criterion-football-betting/Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe Kelly criterion in football betting, explained with worked examples — the formula, why full Kelly ruins bankrolls, and why calibration decides everything. https://footinsights.com/blog/over-25-goals-rates-by-league/https://footinsights.com/blog/over-25-goals-rates-by-league/Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTOver 2.5 goals rates by league from 16,000+ matches: the Champions League hits 64%, the Brasileirão 44%, and the 'overs land half the time' rule fails everywhere. https://footinsights.com/blog/why-football-prediction-sites-are-free/https://footinsights.com/blog/why-football-prediction-sites-are-free/Mon, 31 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTFree tips are not charity. Four business models fund this industry, each rewards something different, and knowing which one you're reading tells you what the predictions are optimised for. https://footinsights.com/blog/closing-line-value-football-betting/https://footinsights.com/blog/closing-line-value-football-betting/Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTClosing line value explained for football: the decimal-odds formula, the de-vig step most guides skip, and why CLV converges far faster than profit. https://footinsights.com/blog/how-cash-out-is-calculated-football-betting/https://footinsights.com/blog/how-cash-out-is-calculated-football-betting/Sun, 30 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTHow cash out is calculated in football betting: the formula behind the offer, the second margin hidden inside it, and what it does to a track record. https://footinsights.com/blog/comparing-teams-across-leagues/https://footinsights.com/blog/comparing-teams-across-leagues/Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTTeam ratings look like they're on one scale. They aren't. Every league's ratings are anchored inside that league, which is why cross-league comparison needs data domestic fixtures never provide. https://footinsights.com/blog/does-squad-market-value-predict-football-results/https://footinsights.com/blog/does-squad-market-value-predict-football-results/Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTDoes squad market value predict football results? It carries real signal, and quietly re-reads results you have. Where it helps, and where it misleads. https://footinsights.com/blog/early-season-football-predictions/https://footinsights.com/blog/early-season-football-predictions/Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTAugust is when every model is at its worst, and most of them don't say so. What actually breaks at the start of a season, and how long it takes to recover. https://footinsights.com/blog/poisson-underrates-draws-football/https://footinsights.com/blog/poisson-underrates-draws-football/Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTIndependent Poisson misprices the scorelines football produces most. Where the assumption breaks, the correction that fixes it, and what our own data can and cannot show. https://footinsights.com/blog/sample-size-in-betting-records/https://footinsights.com/blog/sample-size-in-betting-records/Sat, 29 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTSample size in betting, explained: the variance math showing how many bets a record needs before its win rate or ROI means anything at all. https://footinsights.com/blog/barcelona-rayo-what-a-clean-sheet-streak-is-worth/https://footinsights.com/blog/barcelona-rayo-what-a-clean-sheet-streak-is-worth/Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTBarcelona have not conceded in La Liga this season, or to Rayo at home in four meetings. Our model still makes both teams to score a 48.4% shot. That is deliberate. https://footinsights.com/blog/juventus-parma-why-a-model-refuses-the-market-price/https://footinsights.com/blog/juventus-parma-why-a-model-refuses-the-market-price/Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe market prices Juventus at roughly 78% to beat Parma. Our model says 55.6%. That 22-point gap is what early-season sample size looks like in a probability. https://footinsights.com/blog/la-liga-matchday-1-round-played-across-twelve-days/https://footinsights.com/blog/la-liga-matchday-1-round-played-across-twelve-days/Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTLa Liga's opening round ran from 15 to 27 August. Our predictions for it were built from wildly different amounts of evidence — and three fixtures have no prediction at all. https://footinsights.com/blog/machine-learning-football-predictions/https://footinsights.com/blog/machine-learning-football-predictions/Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTMachine learning football predictions, assessed honestly: what swapping a Poisson model for gradient boosting actually buys — and what it cannot. https://footinsights.com/blog/napoli-como-the-flattest-number-of-the-round/https://footinsights.com/blog/napoli-como-the-flattest-number-of-the-round/Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTOur model gives Napoli 39.4% at the Maradona and Como 33.2%. It is the flattest 1X2 split in the Serie A round, and the goals line is low too. Here is what produces that. https://footinsights.com/blog/sevilla-atletico-the-fixture-list-a-model-cannot-see/https://footinsights.com/blog/sevilla-atletico-the-fixture-list-a-model-cannot-see/Fri, 28 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTAtlético start a forced run of three straight away games because their stadium is unavailable. Our model has no field for that. Here is what it prices instead. https://footinsights.com/blog/aston-villa-arsenal-draw-above-the-home-win/https://footinsights.com/blog/aston-villa-arsenal-draw-above-the-home-win/Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTOur model makes Villa Park a 26.3% home win and a 26.7% draw. A Premier League home side ranked third at its own ground is rare — here is what produces it. https://footinsights.com/blog/coventry-hull-no-real-favourite/https://footinsights.com/blog/coventry-hull-no-real-favourite/Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTOur model splits this 37.0 / 27.3 / 35.7 — a 1.3-point gap between home and away. The market has it at 29 points. Only one of those is an honest answer. https://footinsights.com/blog/international-football-predictions/https://footinsights.com/blog/international-football-predictions/Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTWhy international football predictions are harder than club ones: ten matches a year, a squad that reassembles each camp, and ratings that don't cross borders. https://footinsights.com/blog/serie-a-matchday-1-narrow-home-favourites/https://footinsights.com/blog/serie-a-matchday-1-narrow-home-favourites/Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTThree Serie A openers had our model backing the home side without conviction. All three finished 0-1, 0-2 and 0-1 to the away team. That pattern is worth examining. https://footinsights.com/blog/how-accurate-is-forebet/https://footinsights.com/blog/how-accurate-is-forebet/Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTNobody outside a prediction site can confirm the accuracy it advertises — including ours. Here is the 30-day audit that settles the question for any site you rely on. https://footinsights.com/blog/leeds-brentford-confidence-below-probability/https://footinsights.com/blog/leeds-brentford-confidence-below-probability/Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTOur model makes Leeds 38.4% favourites at Elland Road but publishes 30.7% confidence. That gap is not rounding — it is two model components disagreeing. https://footinsights.com/blog/lille-psg-twelve-point-gap-to-the-market/https://footinsights.com/blog/lille-psg-twelve-point-gap-to-the-market/Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe market makes PSG 54% at Lille. Our model says 41.7%. One parameter explains most of that gap, and it is a parameter we have not tuned away. https://footinsights.com/blog/man-united-ipswich-how-little-one-defeat-moves-a-model/https://footinsights.com/blog/man-united-ipswich-how-little-one-defeat-moves-a-model/Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTUnited lost 2-0 at Hull and our model still makes them 58.8% favourites against Ipswich. Here is the arithmetic that caps how far one result can move a rating. https://footinsights.com/blog/premier-league-matchday-1-pricing-promoted-clubs/https://footinsights.com/blog/premier-league-matchday-1-pricing-promoted-clubs/Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTThe market made the three promoted clubs near-certain losers. Our model priced them far higher. Two of three won — and the same caution cost us at the Emirates. https://footinsights.com/blog/what-is-a-good-brier-score/https://footinsights.com/blog/what-is-a-good-brier-score/Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTWhat is a good Brier score? It depends on which formula, which benchmark and how many matches — the arithmetic that turns a raw number into an answer. https://footinsights.com/blog/dixon-coles-model-football/https://footinsights.com/blog/dixon-coles-model-football/Mon, 24 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTHow the Dixon-Coles model fixes the Poisson draw problem: the tau correction on four scorelines, time decay, and a worked example from score matrix to 1X2. https://footinsights.com/blog/barcelona-athletic-postponed-matchday-one/https://footinsights.com/blog/barcelona-athletic-postponed-matchday-one/Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTBarcelona play matchday 1 on 27 August, after matchday 2. What a postponed opening fixture does to a prediction model is not what you would guess. https://footinsights.com/blog/can-chatgpt-predict-football-matches/https://footinsights.com/blog/can-chatgpt-predict-football-matches/Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTCan ChatGPT predict football matches? It will produce a confident answer for any fixture you name. Here is why that answer cannot be scored, and what can. https://footinsights.com/blog/championship-matchday-2-defence-ratings/https://footinsights.com/blog/championship-matchday-2-defence-ratings/Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTThree of the division's weakest-rated attacks put eight goals past better-rated defences. What a defence rating is actually worth in August. https://footinsights.com/blog/flamengo-botafogo-derby-column-model-lacks/https://footinsights.com/blog/flamengo-botafogo-derby-column-model-lacks/Sun, 23 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMTA clássico at the Maracanã, and our model gives Flamengo 60.1%. Do prediction models account for derbies? Ours does not, and here is what that costs.